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PE&PP plastic futures market analysis

  • Categories:Industry news
  • Author:
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  • Time of issue:2018-12-14 09:08
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(Summary description)[ Crude Oil ] On the 10th, O PE C and non-OPEC reached a production reduction agreement, and Russia and other countries will reduce production by 558,000 barrels per day...

PE&PP plastic futures market analysis

(Summary description)[ Crude Oil ] On the 10th, O PE C and non-OPEC reached a production reduction agreement, and Russia and other countries will reduce production by 558,000 barrels per day...

  • Categories:Industry news
  • Author:
  • Origin:
  • Time of issue:2018-12-14 09:08
  • Views:
Information

[ Crude Oil ] On the 10th, O PE C and non-OPEC reached a production reduction agreement, and Russia and other countries will reduce production by 558,000 barrels per day. The current low oil prices have affected the political and economic stability of OPEC ’s major oil-producing countries. The participation of non-OPEC oil-producing countries has also eliminated the worries that OPEC member countries have lost market share. The possibility of a substantial increase in production is relatively small, and we are optimistic about the implementation of this production cut agreement. Although the global crude oil supply is greatly affected by the implementation of OPEC and non-OPEC production cuts, whether the production cuts can be implemented only affects the time point of rebalancing. If production cuts are not implemented at all, supply and demand rebalancing will be achieved in the second half of 2017. If production cuts are completed by more than 85%, rebalancing will be achieved in the first half of 2017. Rebalancing has become a foregone conclusion, and oil prices are mostly dips.

Plastic /PP LLDPE PetrochemicalThe quotation was stable, CNPC North China 9800, Sinopec North China 9800; Shenhua bid well,Tianjin 9780; North China market prices held steady, Tianjin reported 9850; CFR Far East 1129-1130; Ethylene CFR Northeast Asia 1099-1100, +40; 1705 contract closed 10355, +175, basis -575.

PP petrochemical quotations are raised, Sinopec East China 9000, +200, Sinopec East China 8900, +200; Shenhua bids well, Ningbo has no; East China market price is stable, Ningbo 9050; CFR Far East 1029-1030 Propylene CFR China 859-860. 1705 contract closing price 9449, +183.

On the whole, the spot price of polyolefins was partially raised, the futures price was positive, the basis difference was larger, and the internal and external spreads were inverted by about 100. The increase in the price of crude oil and methanol at the cost end played a role in promoting. Base has been put into production, continue to pay attentionThe dynamics of Changzhou Fude and Jiangsu Silbang are likely to oscillate upwards in the short-term, and long-term waiting for the opportunity to go short.

[Methanol] CFR China 334-336 USD / ton, -1; Jiangsu 2920-2950, ​​-25; Ningbo 3000-3020, -35; South China 2830-2860, -60; Shandong 2850-2930, 0; Hebei 2620-3000 , +215; Sichuan-Chongqing 2550-2900,0; Shaanxi 2450-2600,0; Inner Mongolia 2460-2480, +40; methanol 1705 contract closing price 2862, +9, basis difference 58; one-five price difference -3. Current coastal inventory Tight, although the external supply is expected to increase, but it is still insufficient in the short term. Imports and domestic costs are stable. Jiangsu Shenghong and Changzhou Fude are expected to put into operation before the end of the year, but the cost of raw materials has continued to rise. At a later stage, it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in the downstream market.

[PTA] The price of the PTA market rose sharply on Friday, with the Haiyan index of 5108 and +146. 140% production and sales of polyester yarn. PX825 USD, equivalent to PTA processing fee of 600 yuan / ton. In December, ACP negotiated that at $ 795, the cost is still relatively low. OPEC and non-OPEC reached an agreement to reduce production, and crude oil rose sharply on Monday, which greatly boosted the chemical industry. The price increase of downstream polyesters at the weekend, coupled with low inventory, positive terminal replenishment, there are conditions for short-term PTA increase, and will enjoy higher processing fees. Operation is bargain-hunting and long-term, not short, not chasing high.

PVCFutures oscillated upward, the spot continued to fall, and the decline was reduced. The Northwest joint insurer's measures are pale and weak under the loose supply and demand and low demand season. The main reason for the price rise and fall is that the transportation problem has been alleviated, but the downstream demand has weakened significantly. The market is more bearish and the market is more bearish. Based on the exposure risk of upstream and downstream, traders are cautiously making profitable shipments, even when their own inventory is low. However, the quotation is still being sold ahead of time, which reflects that the market is more bearish; the manufacturers still have large profits due to the lack of inventory, and their mentality is relatively stable. In addition, the early PVC has been rising all the way,The profits of the industry continue to expand and have reached a high level in recent years. However, the profits of the downstream products industry have been severely compressed. In this regard, the downstream industry is still digesting. From the perspective of the continuous expansion of profits in the PVC industry, the price may fall slightly in the later period. However, the price of calcium carbide will increase, and the cost of PVC will increase by about 1,000. Therefore, there is a certain price support for PVC, about 7,000. Recently, the seven central environmental protection inspection teams have begun to move into the inspections for about one month. It is expected that the inspections will be completed by the end of this year. Environmental protection inspection may reduce the output of calcium carbide industry, this measure is more beneficial than PVC. In the medium to long term, prices are mainly within a narrow range.

[Asphalt] The mainstream price of asphalt is 2175 (+125) in East China, 1775 (+50) in Shandong, and 2125 (+100) in South China. South Korea's CFR East China is US $ 225 / ton, and Thailand's CFR South China is US $ 250 / ton. 1612 closed 2174, -2, East China basis 1; 1706 closed 2464, -2, East China basis -289. 12-6 spread -290. Recently, spot asphalt has risen one after another, and the demand for finishing in East and South China is good, which still supports futures. 06 There is still room for imagination above the contract. Still think that there will be a wave of decline in the market outlook due to the off-seasonQuotes , but the center of gravity of the spot has been greatly improved, and there is limited room for futures to fall.

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