Key points of content:

    1. Recently, the international crude oil market has stabilized above the US $ 50 mark with the efforts of OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries to implement the 120% reduction rate.

    2. The demand side plastic is relatively strong and the polypropylene is weak.

    3. Affected by good inventories and demand support, the current market of plastics is in a strong shock period.

    To sum up, due to the impact of good inventories and demand support, the current market of plastics is in a strong shock period. However, in November, we must pay attention to the performance of the market demand side and the risk of inventory rebound. The overall market will still be strong under the above support.

    Polypropylene is weaker than plastics.

    Plastics: Plastics are generally oscillating and stronger and follow the trend of the black system. In the early stage, the high-priced supply in the hands of the holding traders was exhausted. After the high shipment, the market was quiet until the mid-to-late October recovery. Recently, the cumulative inventory of petrochemicals fell to the low and middle levels. In the maintenance season, the linear price still has some support. Recently, polyolefin shocks are expected to be strong.

    PP: Petrochemical inventories fell to a low level, futures fluctuated, and the accumulation of inter-replenishment was basically completed. Under the overall atmosphere, PP began to fluctuate after a slight rebound. However, the actual demand in the same period was relatively flat, the actual trading in the market was average, high-price transactions were blocked, and merchants waited and watched the shipment. There are no clear rebound conditions for fundamentals, and the market needs actual support. In addition, environmental inspections continue to affect downstream construction, and it is expected that the recent PP shocks will be weak.

    1. Industry chain analysis

    1. Analysis of crude oil trend

    The market-focused JMMC meeting ended on October 21 (Saturday). The Joint Ministerial Production Reduction Supervision Committee (JMMC) of OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries stated that according to the September 2017 report provided by the Joint Technical Committee (JTC), The implementation rate of OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries has reached a level of 120%, a record high since the announcement of the implementation of the production cuts on November 30, 2016. JMMC is satisfied with the overall results, and believes that this once again highlights the joint efforts of the participating countries to achieve the rebalancing of the crude oil market, and encourages all participating countries to continue to adhere to the consistent line to achieve the goal of both producers and consumers. Bring benefits. Overall, the meeting showed good oil-producing countries' intention to cut production and exert greater influence on the ongoing market rebalancing process. However, the stability of crude oil supply in some OPEC member countries is being threatened, including Venezuelan crude oil has been complained and returned by several major crude oil importers for quality reasons; and the ongoing armed conflict in Iraq has brought more to the implementation of the production reduction agreement. The uncertain effect of

    According to the latest monthly data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API), the demand for U.S. oil and refined oil reached a new high since 2007, while Baker Hughes reported that the number of U.S. oil active drilling platforms continued to decline during the third week of October Coupled with media reports that Mexico ’s September oil output fell to its lowest level since 1980, it has boosted the market ’s bullish sentiment and supported oil prices.

    Afterwards, the news of the international crude oil market was weak. After the completion of the WTI contract replacement, investors were mostly watching the further development of the market, and the operation mentality was cautious. Waiting for more market news to give more guidance, oil prices have recently fluctuated Running trend.

    2. Analysis of upstream price difference

    From the price difference chart below, the price difference between propylene and naphtha in October continued a steady trend of nearly two months, and the overall price was slightly lowered at the end of the month. Since the price difference between the two reached a recent high of US $ 504 in September, the entire September-October period was due to the implementation rate of OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries' production cut agreements reached the highest level since the announcement of the implementation of the production cuts, plus the United States Due to the bullish crude oil inventory data and the further expansion of China's crude oil demand, the international crude oil market remains stable above the $ 50 mark.